The Conference Semifinal matchup between the 1st seeded Phoenix Suns and 4th seeded Dallas Mavericks is a classic example of how unpredictable the playoffs can be. Through the first two games of the series the Suns appeared to be on the way to a series sweep after coming off a blowout 129-108 win in Game 2. However, the Mavericks have managed to switch up their game plan allowing multiple key players to be more involved in the offense taking the pressure off Luka Dončić. The Mavericks talented young point guard Jalen Brunson stepped up in game 3 dropping a game high 28 points to give the Mavericks a much needed win. In Game 4, Dončić was the leading scorer once again with 26 points but was supported by excellent play from Dorian Finney-Smith who dropped 24 points and hit 8 3-pointers. With a 111-101 Mavericks win, the series is now tied 2-2 going back to Phoenix and the Mavericks appear to have acquired some momentum. For the Suns, their star point guard Chris Paul played great the first two game of the series but tailed off mightily in Dallas and managed to have more fouls than points in Game 4. Despite this setback I still feel the Suns will come away victorious in the series and I will breakdown why.
When this series first started I expected this to be a rather short series as I picked the Suns to win in 5. Although Phoenix finds themselves in a more competitive series than many expected, there are many reasons why I expect them to bounce back in game 5 and win the series in 6. For starters, I expect Chris Paul to get back to the level of play of the first two games where he was far more efficient. For example, in Game 2 he had 28 points on 11-16 from the field along with 8 assists and just 3 turnovers, I would not surprise if he has a similar performance in Game 5. Look for Paul to get his teammates involved early and often to get them going offensively then take over in the 4th quarter.
To win this series, the Suns will need to get back to the positive habits they built early in the series. Luka obviously is their main point of emphasis defensively and although there is no clear stop to a great player like him, the Suns will have to find a way to slow the Mavericks role players down. The difference of the past two games was Luka not having to be a volume scorer for them to win as players like Brunson and Finney-Smith stepped up in Dallas. They key for the rest of the series for the Suns will be how they handle matching up with Luka on both sides of the floor. They will have to make him compete defensively by putting him pick and rolls with Chris Paul to try to wear him down like they did in Game 2. Also, closing out on shooters to make the game difficult for whoever is on the floor with Luka will make the Dallas offense less balanced and efficient.
The Suns are a great team and led by the coach of the year in Monty Williams who no doubt will have a great game plan prepared for this pivotal game 5. I also expect the dynamic backcourt of Chris Paul and Devin Booker to play well and close this series out in 6 to return to the conference finals. Although the Mavericks have shown a lot of heart fighting their way back into the series I don't think they quite have enough to beat the Suns who are in my opinion the best team in the playoffs.
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