After an exciting Game 2 in Denver, we officially have a series on our hands as the Heat came away with the huge win on the road. The Heat made several adjustments in Game 2 with one of the obvious improvements was from shooters like Max Strus hitting the open looks he missed in Game 1. As for the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic had a dominant 41 points yet a lot of conversation has been about him having just 4 assists instead of his playoff average of 10.1 assists per game. With the series tied at 1-1 headed back to Miami, both teams will have to continue to make adjustments but who has the advantage going into Game 3?
The Nuggets lost at home for the first time this postseason but to their credit this is their first loss since May 7th. However, a trend from that last loss has seeming carried over into the Finals as the Nuggets are now 0-3 when Nikola scores 40+ points. In the previous loss against the Suns, Nikola dropped 53 points and a lot is being made about making Jokic a scorer. What some people may forget is that Jokic also had 11 assists in that game so simply making him a scorer is not really the most effective winning strategy against Denver that some think it is. The Nuggets lost because they did not execute down the stretch after allowing the Heat to comeback from a 15 point deficit.
Miami did not win because they made Jokic a scorer, they won because role players stepped up as scorers when needed. Their leading scorer in Game 2 was Gabe Vincent but they also got key contributions from other key role players such as Max Strus and Duncan Robinson. After shooting 0-10 in Game 1, Strus bounced back hitting 4 three pointers in Game 2. Robinson stepped up in the 4th quarter where scored all 10 of his points to help Miami's comeback effort. As a team, the Heat shot an excellent 48.6% from beyond the arc compared to 33.3% in Game 1. With the Heat returning home for Game 3 this could play to their advantage as their role players have routinely played well at home this postseason.
Another major reason why I expect the Heat to have the advantage is because of the stellar play of their All-Star big man Bam Adebayo. Through the first two games of the Finals, Adebayo has taken on the challenge against Jokic and has been the player for the Heat so far. He is currently the Heat's leading scorer and rebounder averaging 23.5 points, 11 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. With Adebayo playing at a Finals MVP level and the Heat's best player in Jimmy Butler due for a "Playoff Jimmy" performance the Heat appear poised to take the series lead in Game 3.
Despite losing home court advantage, I still expect the Nuggets to win the series in 6 games as they are still the more talented team and have the best player in Jokic. Although these next two games in Miami will likely be their biggest test of adversity this postseason.
Source: NBA YouTube Channel
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