The Boston Celtics face off against the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks in a highly anticipated Conference Semifinal matchup. This series is primed to be not just a historic matchup between two eastern conference powerhouses but it could also decide who represents the east in the NBA finals. For this series, the stars will obviously have to be at their best but with Khris Middleton out, the Bucks will need their role players to step up. If players like Bobby Portis and Grayson Allen are able to perform like they did in the first round against the Chicago Bulls it will be a huge lift for the Bucks. As for the Celtics, they are coming off an impressive sweep against the Brooklyn Nets thanks to their swarming defense and phenomenal performances from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Many experts are conflicted on how this series will pan out but I will give a breakdown and predict who wins and in how many games.
To fully analyze this series, we first have to look back at their regular season matchups. The Bucks and Celtics matched up four times over the course of the season and finished the season series tied 2-2. Only 3 players total from both teams played in all four games, it was Jrue Holiday and Bobby Portis for the Bucks, and Marcus Smart for the Celtics. The leading scorer in their matchups was Jayson Tatum who averaged 31.3 points per game in 3 games played. He averaged slightly more than Giannis who averaged 28.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game in 3 games played. A lot of talk has been surrounded the loss of Middleton who is expected to miss the entire series due to an MCL sprain. However in the 3 games he played against the Celtics, Middleton averaged just 14.3 points per game on a 41% shooting percentage. Those numbers pale in comparison to his season scoring average of 20.1 points per game and shooting an excellent 50.1% from the field. It was Jrue Holiday who was the consistent secondary scorer as in 4 games he averaged 20.8 points per game. This was a slight raise from his regular season scoring average of 18.3 points per game.
Who actually wins the series will be based on multiple factors, for the Celtics they will have to maintain the same defensive intensity they had against the Nets. They will also have to adjust offensively since the Bucks are a far superior defensive team than the Nets. The series likely will not come down to simply which two stars players play better in the case of Tatum and Brown versus Holiday and Antetokounmpo. A difference maker for the series could be based on role players like Portis, Allen, and Pat Connaughton. They will have to outplay the Celtics bench players such as Grant Williams, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard to cover up for the loss of Middleton. For Holiday, his role will be even more crucial as whatever scoring load he is able to add to support Giannis will make things much easier for Bucks. The Defensive player of the Year, Marcus Smart could have something to say about that however as he serves as a major X-factor for the Celtics especially in this series.
Ultimately, I am going with the Milwaukee Bucks to win this series in 6 games as I feel that Giannis is just to great to bet against even without his all star teammate Middleton. The overall depth of the Bucks along with Holiday stepping up offensively paired with his usual defensive prowess will be enough for them to win. In the end, the fact that they are a battle tested team with championship experience will be a major difference for them in this series and why they will win.
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